The Storm Is Coming?

About close to 1.5 years before Dato's Seri Anwar Ibrahim's shocking downfall in 1998, I had already heard rumours in the party, of a conspiracy to bring him down, by elements within the party.

I dismissed it, thinking that it was mere empty talk, by people who had nothing else to do. Aside from the apparent growing distance in the remarks made by Dato' Seri Anwar Anwar and Dato' Seri Dr. Mahathir Mohamad at that time, there were no indicators that they were having a major falling-out, which would bring things to an open confrontation.

Of course, as circumstances would have it, the economic crisis brought everything to a point of conflict. The rest is history - some of the darkest periods that we've known in Malay and Malaysian political history.

It didn't matter, whether you liked Anwar Ibrahim or not. There was a large divisiveness, especially in the Malay community, caused by the way that the former top Government leader had been treated.

And it was only after his release under the Abdullah administration, did the Malay community (and to a larger extent, the faith of Malaysians with the judiciary) begin to recover. There was always a suspicion (deserving or otherwise) that the Government had pressured parts of the judiciary, in the Anwar Ibrahim sodomy and corruption trial.

Ironically, with Anwar's release, the pressure to reform and Keadilan's legitimacy as a reformist party, deflated tremendously. It was a master stroke by the Abdullah administration - he stamped the mark of a new age by healing the single most controversial miscarriage of justice within the Malaysian system, during the Mahathir era.

Faith in the judiciary returned after Anwar's release. And amongst a list of other promises of reforms, I remember thinking that Dato' Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (or more popularly known as Pak Lah) had really come into his own. The signs were promising.

Almost 2 years after Anwar's release, I hear the party mill rumour mill (and other centers of influence) buzzing again. It's about possible movements to politically destabilize the current PM (who is seen to be ineffective, but nevertheless nice guy) and to "nudge" him into retirement after slightly more than one term in the office.

I could dismiss it as a mere rumour, as I did back in 1997. But back then, the under-currents were much subtler.

In this case, I sense that the under-currents are strong and visible.

The polite "no comments" stance given by the party seniors and senior civil servants when asked about Pak Lah, the reaction to the Singaporeans buying in into some major Malaysian corporations (like TM and Pantai Holdings), the frustration felt by the business community that there seems to be no leadership in Malaysia's economic direction and lately, the open battle between Tun Dr. Mahathir/Tengku Mahaleel team against the Pak-Lah backed Proton Berhad Board of Directors.

Stories are flying around everywhere about the conflict between the personalities representing the senior civil service side supporting the Abdullah administration, against the younger set of "Young Turks" on the Policy and Communications side, of the PM's Office - which is in charge of all the Abdullah admnistration's policy initiatives.

This conflict is popularly termed on some blogs as "the ninjas" versus "the scholars". Apparently, it has been rumoured that "the ninjas" are resisting the influence of the "Young Turks", causing a reactive paralysis at the top levels of the Abdullah administration.

It has been rumoured that some of the "Young Turks" have either become overloaded with work, frustrated at the indecisiveness at the top and the resistance they are facing from the political or the civil service side. They're burning out - in spirit, in energy, in enthusiasm.

But the logic was flawed to begin with - putting a small group of young but highly-qualified policy advisors from the private sector to be in charge of advising the Prime Minister, within an ocean of civil servants (who had to wait to be where they are), was just a recipe waiting to fail. It's like trying to kill an elephant with an aerosol.

It's possible that the Young Turks may not have adapted very well to the "seniority-based" culture of the Malaysian civil service and are feeling the impact of the "internal sabotage" led by some of the senior civil servants.

Truth of the matter is, if the civil service resists any attempts at reform - the Abdullah administration will fail to achieve its many promises. Information is the life blood of good policies - if the civil service side cuts the flow of Government information to the policy side - policy-making becomes an impossible process.

But back to Pak Lah. Aside from the the fact that he's a nice and religious man - there's not very much to be said for his achievements in office, so far. Perhaps, if we give him the benefit of the doubt - much of it is due to the 9th Malaysia Plan not being rolled out yet.

But critics have been quick to retort that there were ample instances where Pak Lah could have shown more leadership - the Proton issue, the promise to step up efforts against corruption (be it in Government or UMNO), the Malaysia Airlines issue, the AP issue, the Polygamy Bill issue, the Cabinet reshuffle, etc.

It could also be, that strong comparisons are still being drawn between his "laissez faire and delegated" leadership style and that of Tun Dr Mahathir's, which was far more hands-on.

Dr. Mahathir's outspoken stance against some of the policies of the Abdullah administration, the paralysis of the civil service, the still slow pace of Government-linked companies (GLC) reform (other than Telekom Malaysia), the general sentiment on the ground amongst Malaysians - that Pak Lah is being ineffective, the rumblings within the party of a challenge or "a retirement arrangement" for Pak Lah, within the next 3 years - all these are possibly signs of future turmoil, within the system.

If things remain in this mode - I think we're at the point where it's the calm before the storm.

A political storm. Possibly, the likes of which we haven't seen, since the mid 80's - when the Mahathir-Tengku Razaleigh split, literally divided UMNO into two.

There's an old Chinese curse that says - "May you live in interesting times". I foresee that the next few years, will be "interesting times" indeed, for Malaysia.
Not that we can afford to live in "interesting times" though. Our ASEAN neighbours are politically stable and making all the right moves to adapt to globalization and to surpass us, economically.

If politicians lose their focus off the ball and start focusing on an internal political "civil war" in UMNO within the next few years, the biggest losers from this outcome - will be ALL Malaysians.

May God guide the current PM, to do the correct and necessary things, for our people. May God help Malaysia, through all its challenges.

Personally, I don't want to live in "interesting times". There's already enough challenges for us out there, without having a potential political turmoil in our hands. It's an equation that will ensure that all of us, loses.