It finally happened today - Tun Dr Mahathir came out blazing in the newspapers and expressed his full disappointment with the Abdullah administration and the promises made to him by Pak Lah, which were not kept.
He complained of being back-stabbed by the people he picked in the past and also commented that he suffered "minor bruises", when asked if Pak Lah had done the same to him.
He also claimed that people in the Abdullah administration claimed that he had "bankrupted" the Government, after building the mega-projects like Putrajaya.
He even implied that he's chosen the wrong successor by saying that Pak Lah is not first choice and that he expects "a degree of gratitude".
The phrase "gempar sekampung" to his statements in the press does not even begin to describe it. I've been receiving calls, SMS'es and e-mails all day regarding the issue, from interested friends. It seems to come as quite a shock to many people.
I wasn't surprised - I was expecting Tun to fire the first verbal shot. I was expecting it to come a little later, though. But then, you can never truly predict Tun Mahathir's moves. He's always 3 steps ahead of everyone.
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The swift response by a slew of Ministers was more telling in what they said, as opposed to how many of them, had come to Pak Lah's defence.
I thought Dato' Seri Najib gave the best response that the Prime Minister is not to be blamed for everything, as it is a Cabinet decision. I thought it was good for 2 reasons.
First, that it reaffirms the collective responsibility of the Cabinet, on the policy decisions made by the current Government and that if it was true if there were any mistaken policies in the past administration under Dr. Mahathir, it is also a collective mistake by all those who had also been Cabinet Ministers, back then. (Most of whom are still in the current Cabinet)
Secondly, the only way for a Minister to dissociate oneself from a collective stand, once the policy decision is decided on by the Cabinet - is to resign. And before the issue is decided on, to speak up on the issue and disagree. Silence constitutes consent - blaming the previous or current Prime Minister for all Cabinet decisions made, is tantamount to saying that we have appointed stooges, as our Ministers.
Datuk Azalina Othman Said went one step further, by saying that some decisions were made by Ministers, and only announced by the Prime Minister. She continued to say that to say that Pak Lah unilaterally makes decisions and shoots down the former PM's plans, is not accurate.
Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz's comments, were even more interesting.
He claimed the Abdullah administration never said that the Government has run out of money - although it is common knowledge that the money for 8th Malaysia Plan has been spent 2 years ago! He politely added that they did not blame Dr Mahathir for it. How nice of them not to do so.
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What do I make out of this whole fracas?
First, no promise made by any current Prime Minister to a former Prime Minister can and should be binding, without reference to the Cabinet and the national interest, at that time and going forward, 5-10 years down.
No matter how grateful you are, no such promises should be made (and if Pak Lah made such promises, it's foolish of him). And neither should there be an expectation that such promises would be kept.
Secondly, I don't think Tun Mahathir is trying to topple Pak Lah, as widely speculated. It's not Pak Lah's head that he wants. Listen to what he's been saying in the last few months and you may pick up certain hints, on what he wants.
Yes, I think that he wants certain people around Pak Lah removed from prominence (hints of the persona of Khairy Jamaluddin and Kalimullah Hassan, seem to be peppered all over his interviews)and mention of his dissatisfaction on the handling of the AP issue, still persists.
Yes, I think I think he would want for the railway double-tracking project to continue and perhaps, the scenic half-bridge to Singapore too - for infrastructure development and shipping/logistics strategy (although the merits of the latter is debatable, according to some).
I think he would want to be consulted and not side-lined in Proton-related issues. (It's strange to have be an advisor to a company where certain decisions are not explained to him).
And perhaps, to play a more prominent role in Petronas and on strategic decisions on what to do with its funds.
And occasionally, to be consulted like a one-man policy think-tank on issues, because the Old Man is still as sharp as razor, especially on current economic and foreign policy issues. He's not the Prime Minister anymore - it can't hurt to consult him for advice, on certain issues.
Last but not least, I think he would like a public apology by Pak Lah, from the Abdullah administration. Never underestimate the value of respect, amongst Malay leaders. Everyone wants to be appreciated for their efforts.
I think if all these were conceded to Dr Mahathir, he would leave the Abdullah administration alone. And he will not continue creating ripples within UMNO.
The only question is: will the "price" of what will be asked, possibly, be too high to concede for Pak Lah (personally and administratively) and the country, going forward?
And the bigger question is: if he doesn't get at least half of what he wants - will he persist in his attacks on Pak Lah in UMNO?
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Meanwhile, I think it's time the UMNO veterans like Tun Musa Hitam, Tengku Ahmad Rithauddeen, Tan Sri Aishah Ghani and Tan Sri Sanusi Junid play a mediating role between Dr Mahathir and Pak Lah, before things get really ugly in UMNO.
Some things are more suited to being settled behind closed doors and by people who no longer have a conflict of interest - as they're not in the Cabinet.
Since 1981, every 10-12 years or so, there is a huge split in UMNO.
This is (possibly) the 3rd time it's happening and this time, it's the first time that Dr Mahathir is not the Prime Minister. But as Anwar Ibrahim has pointed out - it would a mistake to underestimate Dr Mahathir.
Tun Ling Liong Sik once said that a former President of a Barisan component party can always swing at least 30% of the party's votes. Considering the significance of Dr Mahathir's influence in UMNO, it will not be impossible (though difficult) for him to swing another 21% to him, if the intent was to for him to return as UMNO President and remove Pak Lah.
The capacity is there, perhaps. But as I said - I don't think that's his intent, unless he feels that it's his only option.
The best solution here, I feel, is for the UMNO veterans to broker some sort of compromise between both parties, based on what both parties desire - preferably, a compromise that can be reached before the UMNO General Assembly.
Let's avoid another unnecessary split amongst the Malays, which will not only undermine Malay progress, but also threatens to derail Malaysia's national development, as a whole.
Every time we split UMNO and the Malay community into two, we segregate and exclude half of our talent pool, from the benefits of development - just because politics warrants it so. It's emotionally exhausting and frustrating, for most.
The competitive world is leaving us behind, as we habitually split our community, every 10 years or so. It's time for UMNO to mature from past lessons and make the best of what we have, in unity.
And yet, I see so many of the young ones out there, goading and egging for a political fight. They want to see "political blood" spilled and prominent figures fall, without considering the consequences of a political split, on everyday Malaysians. Knowing what's right is not enough, unless you do things in a proper way.
Work doesn't get done in Government when they have to focus on politicking and survival in their party. Ministers will spend more time campaigning than doing actual work. Than studying whether the Government policies are correct and suitable, or not and whether implementation is done efficiently.
And when work doesn't get done or is delayed - it is the people that suffer, especially the poor. How many of these sort of years has Malaysia had in the past? How much time and resources has been wasted in defeating the other party, whose your own kind?
There is a time to fight, and there is a time not to fight. Wisdom lies is in knowing the right time, for each one.